BSU Bulletin. Mathematics, Informatics
Bibliographic description:
, A MODEL OF BALANCED GROWTH FOR INTERINDUSTRY ECONOMY OF THE REGION // BSU Bulletin. Mathematics, Informatics. - 2020. №1. . - С. 54-66.
Title:
A MODEL OF BALANCED GROWTH FOR INTERINDUSTRY ECONOMY OF THE REGION
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The article considers an extended version of a closed dynamic input-output model of the region in a discrete formulation. Based on real data of the developed input- output base table for the Republic of Buryatia we have formed norm coefficients for input-output model by aggregation.
The dependence of the variables of final consumer demand on household income and the gross output vector is modeled. The resulting square specific household con- sumption matrix is combined with a non-degenerate matrix of direct production cost coefficients. The “integral” matrix is productive and non-degenerate, and the inverse matrix for it represents the total combined costs in the regional economy.
We have estimated the coefficients of marginal capital-output ratio for establishing the vector of industrial investments. By multiplying the inverse matrix of total costs with the special matrix of marginal capital-output ratio, we obtain a closed model of dynamic input-output balance. As a result of solving the obtained characteristic equa- tion the balanced growth rate of production and the eigenvector of gross output of the certain structure are identified. It is possible to determine a balanced growth path of the regional interindustry economy for various scales of products and services.
The dependence of the variables of final consumer demand on household income and the gross output vector is modeled. The resulting square specific household con- sumption matrix is combined with a non-degenerate matrix of direct production cost coefficients. The “integral” matrix is productive and non-degenerate, and the inverse matrix for it represents the total combined costs in the regional economy.
We have estimated the coefficients of marginal capital-output ratio for establishing the vector of industrial investments. By multiplying the inverse matrix of total costs with the special matrix of marginal capital-output ratio, we obtain a closed model of dynamic input-output balance. As a result of solving the obtained characteristic equa- tion the balanced growth rate of production and the eigenvector of gross output of the certain structure are identified. It is possible to determine a balanced growth path of the regional interindustry economy for various scales of products and services.
Keywords:
dynamic input-output model; matrix of capital-output ratio; matrix of direct and total costs; specific consumption matrix; balanced growth path.
List of references:
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Granberg A.G. Osnovy regionalnoi ekonomiki [Fundamentals of the Regional Economy]. Moscow: Higher School of Economics Publ., 2000. 495 p.
Baranov A.O., Dondokov Z. B.-D., Dyrkheev K. P., Pavlov V. N, Suslov V. I. Metodicheskie problemy formirovaniya informatsionnoi bazy dinamicheskoi mezhotraslevoi modeli ekonomiki Respubliki Buryatiya [Methodological Problems of Building the Information Base for a Dynamic Input-Output Economic Model of the Republic of Buryatia]. Regional Research of Russia. 2016. No. 4(92). Pp. 47–68.
ВЕСТНИК БГУ. МАТЕМАТИКА, ИНФОРМАТИКА 2020/1
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Baranov A. O., Pavlov V. N. Postroenie i ispolzovanie v analize i prognoziro- vanii dinamicheskikh mezhotraslevykh modelei [Creation and Use of Dynamic Input- Output Models in Analysis and Forecasting]. Novosibirsk, 2013. 166 p.
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Dondokov Z. B.-D., Dyrkheev K. P. Opyt mezhotraslevogo modelirovaniya sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii s uchetom ekologicheskikh ograni- chenii [Experience of Interindustry Modeling of Socio-Economic Development of the Territories Taking into Account the Environmental Constraints]. Vestnik Buryatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika. Pravo. 2015. No. 2a. Pp. 269–274.
Dugarzhapova D.B. Podkhody k modelirovaniyu multiplikatorov dokhodov i raskhodov naseleniya [Approaches to Modeling Multipliers of Incomes and Expendi- tures of the Population]. Vestnik Buryatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Eko- nomika i menedzhment. 2019. No. 4. P. 37–42.
Kolemayev V. A. Ekonomiko-matematicheskoe modelirovaniye. Mode- lirovanie makroekonomicheskikh protsessov i sistem [Economic and Mathematical Modeling. Modeling of Macroeconomic Processes and Systems]. Moscow: Uniti- Dana Publ., 2005. 295 p.
Leontyev V. Mezhotraslevaya ekonomika [Interindustry Economy]. Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., 1997. 447 p
Modelirovanie i upravlenie protsessami regionalnogo razvitiya [Modeling and Control of Regional Development Processes]. Moscow: Fizmatlit Publ., 2001. 432 p.
Pavlov V. N. Mezhotraslevye sistemy. Matematicheskiye modeli i metody [In- terindustry Systems. Mathematical Models and Methods]. Novosibirsk: Nauka Publ., 1986. 219 p.
Serebryakov G. R., Uzyakov M. N., Yantovskii A. A. Mezh- otraslevaya model ekonomiki Ivanovskoi oblasti [Input-Output Model of the Economy of Ivanovo Oblast]. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2005. No. 2. P. 64–74.
Tagaeva T. O. Metodicheskie voprosy informatsionnogo obespeche- niya dinamicheskoi mezhotraslevoi modeli s blokom okhrany okruzha- yuschei sredy [Methodological Issues of Information Support for a Dynamic Input- Output Model with an Environmental Protection Unit]. Modeli i metody analiza mezhotraslevoi informatsii — Models and Methods for Analyzing Interindustry In- formation. Novosibirsk: IEIE SB RAS Publ., 1994. Pp. 80–113.
Shirov A. A., Yantovskii A. A. Otsenka multiplikativnykh effektov v eko- nomike: vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya [Estimation of Multiplier Effects in the Econ- omy: Opportunities and Limitations]. ECO. 2011. No. 2. Pp. 40–58.
Baranov A. O., Pavlov V. N. Dynamic Input-Output Model Taking Account of the Investment Lag. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1994. Vol. 5, No. 1. Pp. 87–98.
Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. Input-Output Analyses. Foundation and Extensions. 2nd Ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Granberg A.G. Osnovy regionalnoi ekonomiki [Fundamentals of the Regional Economy]. Moscow: Higher School of Economics Publ., 2000. 495 p.
Baranov A.O., Dondokov Z. B.-D., Dyrkheev K. P., Pavlov V. N, Suslov V. I. Metodicheskie problemy formirovaniya informatsionnoi bazy dinamicheskoi mezhotraslevoi modeli ekonomiki Respubliki Buryatiya [Methodological Problems of Building the Information Base for a Dynamic Input-Output Economic Model of the Republic of Buryatia]. Regional Research of Russia. 2016. No. 4(92). Pp. 47–68.
ВЕСТНИК БГУ. МАТЕМАТИКА, ИНФОРМАТИКА 2020/1
image
Baranov A. O., Pavlov V. N. Postroenie i ispolzovanie v analize i prognoziro- vanii dinamicheskikh mezhotraslevykh modelei [Creation and Use of Dynamic Input- Output Models in Analysis and Forecasting]. Novosibirsk, 2013. 166 p.
Dondokov Z. B.-D., Dyrkheev K. P. Metodika provedeniya analiti- cheskikh i prognoznykh raschetov sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya regiona na osnove mezhotraslevoy modeli [Methodology for Performing Analytical and Fore- casting Calculations of the Regional Socio-Economic Deve- lopment Based on the Input-Output Model]. Vestnik Buryatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika. Pravo. 2014. No. 2. Pp. 37–39.
Dondokov Z. B.-D., Dyrkheev K. P. Opyt mezhotraslevogo modelirovaniya sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya territorii s uchetom ekologicheskikh ograni- chenii [Experience of Interindustry Modeling of Socio-Economic Development of the Territories Taking into Account the Environmental Constraints]. Vestnik Buryatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika. Pravo. 2015. No. 2a. Pp. 269–274.
Dugarzhapova D.B. Podkhody k modelirovaniyu multiplikatorov dokhodov i raskhodov naseleniya [Approaches to Modeling Multipliers of Incomes and Expendi- tures of the Population]. Vestnik Buryatskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Eko- nomika i menedzhment. 2019. No. 4. P. 37–42.
Kolemayev V. A. Ekonomiko-matematicheskoe modelirovaniye. Mode- lirovanie makroekonomicheskikh protsessov i sistem [Economic and Mathematical Modeling. Modeling of Macroeconomic Processes and Systems]. Moscow: Uniti- Dana Publ., 2005. 295 p.
Leontyev V. Mezhotraslevaya ekonomika [Interindustry Economy]. Moscow: Ekonomika Publ., 1997. 447 p
Modelirovanie i upravlenie protsessami regionalnogo razvitiya [Modeling and Control of Regional Development Processes]. Moscow: Fizmatlit Publ., 2001. 432 p.
Pavlov V. N. Mezhotraslevye sistemy. Matematicheskiye modeli i metody [In- terindustry Systems. Mathematical Models and Methods]. Novosibirsk: Nauka Publ., 1986. 219 p.
Serebryakov G. R., Uzyakov M. N., Yantovskii A. A. Mezh- otraslevaya model ekonomiki Ivanovskoi oblasti [Input-Output Model of the Economy of Ivanovo Oblast]. Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2005. No. 2. P. 64–74.
Tagaeva T. O. Metodicheskie voprosy informatsionnogo obespeche- niya dinamicheskoi mezhotraslevoi modeli s blokom okhrany okruzha- yuschei sredy [Methodological Issues of Information Support for a Dynamic Input- Output Model with an Environmental Protection Unit]. Modeli i metody analiza mezhotraslevoi informatsii — Models and Methods for Analyzing Interindustry In- formation. Novosibirsk: IEIE SB RAS Publ., 1994. Pp. 80–113.
Shirov A. A., Yantovskii A. A. Otsenka multiplikativnykh effektov v eko- nomike: vozmozhnosti i ogranicheniya [Estimation of Multiplier Effects in the Econ- omy: Opportunities and Limitations]. ECO. 2011. No. 2. Pp. 40–58.
Baranov A. O., Pavlov V. N. Dynamic Input-Output Model Taking Account of the Investment Lag. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. 1994. Vol. 5, No. 1. Pp. 87–98.
Ronald E. Miller and Peter D. Blair. Input-Output Analyses. Foundation and Extensions. 2nd Ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
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