MODELING AND FORECASTING OF TAX RECEIPTS TO THE CONSOLIDATED BUDGET FOR THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION // BSU Bulletin. Mathematics, Informatics. - 2021. №3. . - С. 62-72.

MODELING AND FORECASTING OF TAX RECEIPTS TO THE CONSOLIDATED BUDGET FOR THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

DOI: 10.18101/2304-5728-2021-3-62-72 UDK: 519.24

The paper presents a method of using the multiple regression method to study the dependence of tax revenues on various factors. For the study, open data from the resources of Federal Services for 2020 were selected to determine the factors that have a significant impact on the collection of taxes, fees, and other mandatory pay- ments to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation. Qualitative selection of factors is carried out using step-by-step regression analysis. In the process of analyzing tax revenues, some econometric models with different types of dependence were built. To select the best model, hypotheses about the significance of regression coefficients and a comparison of correlation indicators were tested, which made it possible to iden- tify the linear regression model as the best in terms of approximation of the initial data.

regression analysis; multiple regression model; correlation coefficient; elasticity coefficient; forecasting; econometric research.